Trae Young and the Atlanta Hawks host the Golden State Warriors on Friday evening. The Hawks aim to reach the .500 mark with a win, as Atlanta is 36-37 this season. Atlanta is 23-14 in home games, with Golden State entering at 48-25 overall and 19-16 on the road. Stephen Curry (foot) is out for the Warriors with Andre Iguodala (back) questionable, while Atlanta’s injury reports consists of John Collins (out; foot/finger) and Bogdan Bogdanovic (questionable; knee).
Caesars Sportsbook lists Atlanta as a 2.5-point home favorite, and tip-off is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. ET. The total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, or the Over-Under, is 222 in the latest Warriors vs. Hawks odds. Before you make any NBA predictions with the Warriors vs. Hawks match-up, you’ll want to see the NBA predictions from the proven computer model at SportsLine.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past three-plus seasons. The model enters Week 22 of the 2021-22 NBA season on a stunning 79-49 roll on all top-rated NBA picks, returning over $2,400. Anyone following it has seen huge returns.
- Warriors vs. Hawks spread: Hawks -2.5
- Warriors vs. Hawks over-under: 222 points
- Warriors vs. Hawks money line: Hawks -140, Warriors +120
- GSW: The Warriors are 16-11-1 against the spread in non-conference games
- ATL: The Hawks are 10-17 against the spread in non-conference games
Featured Game | Atlanta Hawks vs. Golden State Warriors
Why the Warriors can cover
Golden State has the much better defense in this matchup. Atlanta ranks in the bottom five of the NBA in defensive rating, with bottom-tier marks in turnover creation, assist prevention, and shooting efficiency allowed. The Warriors are in the top three of the NBA in defensive rating, allowing 106.2 points per 100 possessions. Golden State is No. 2 in the NBA in field goal percentage allowed, with opponents making only 43.7 percent of shots, and the Warriors are No. 4 in three-point defense at 33.9 percent.
Golden State is No. 3 in the league in assists allowed (22.9 per game), and the Warriors force 14.6 turnovers per game, a top-six figure in the NBA. Golden State is No. 2 in the league in steals, averaging 9.0 per game, and the Warriors secure 73.7 percent of available defensive rebounds. The Warriors also wall off the rim, allowing 43.6 points per game in the paint, and opponents produce only 12.6 second-chance points per game against Golden State.
Why the Hawks can cover
Atlanta should benefit from the absence of Curry, as the Warriors are scoring only 104.4 points per 100 possessions with Curry off the floor this season. Golden State is 3-6 when Curry is absent, and the Warriors rank No. 25 or worse in the NBA in free-throw creation and turnover rate on offense. The Hawks are highly effective on the offensive side, scoring 114.3 points per 100 possessions to rank No. 3 in the league. Atlanta commits the fewest turnovers in the NBA, giving the ball away on only 12.1 percent of possessions, and the Hawks generate more than two assists per turnover.
Atlanta is also shooting 37.0 percent from 3-point range and 81.4 percent from the free-throw line, both of which rank in the top five of the NBA, and the Hawks are making 46.7 percent of field goal attempts. Atlanta is also elite in free-throw prevention on defense, yielding 19.7 attempts per game, and the Hawks are in the top 10 of the league in defensive rebound rate and second-chance points allowed per game.
How to make Hawks vs. Warriors picks
The model is leaning over on the total, projecting 229 combined points. It’s also generated a point-spread pick that is hitting in 60 percent of simulations. You can only see the pick at SportsLine.
So who wins Warriors vs. Hawks? And which side of the spread hits 60 percent of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the model that has crushed its NBA picks, and find out.